Inventory Remains in Short Supply, Median Prices Continue to Tick Up
While some media outlets continue to highlight that “closed sales are down”, the real story in South Florida real estate is all about low inventory and rising median prices. Yes, closed sales are down year over year, and April sales are also down from last month. However, it has been an active winter season and our demand remains very strong. Single family median sale prices are approaching, and in some segments surpassing, their all time highs.
The median sales price of a single family home in South Florida reached a peak of $600,000 last June. The median sales price then dropped to $535,000 in December and has risen once again to $585,000 in April. Months supply of inventory remains low at 3.0 months which is still a strong sellers market. With demand still strong and inventory this low we should expect median prices to continue ticking upwards.
The condo market has followed a similar path over the past year with median prices peaking at $330,000 last June. Prices then dropped to $309,000 in December before rising back to $326,000 in April, just shy of June’s peak. However, supply in the condo market has increased every month over the past year and is now at 4.0 months of supply. This is still a seller’s market, but trending towards equilibrium. We should expect condo supply to continue increasing and as a result median prices should stay fairly flat.
Months supply of inventory is trending down for single family homes (3 months) while condos and townhome inventory is trending upwards (4 months). As a result we expect single family median prices to continue rising and condo prices to flatten.
Broward County
The median sales price of a single family home in Broward County was $575,000 which is up 2.7% over last year, but still shy of its peak of $600,000 in July of last year. The county has only 2.5 months supply of single family homes which is the lowest in South Florida. This is a very strong sellers market. As long as inventory remains low and demand continues we should expect median prices to continue going up throughout the summer months.
The median price of a condo/townhome in Broward County was $270,000 in April, just off its peak of $272,000 in February. Months supply of inventory remains low at 3.3 months, but supply has slowly trended upward every month for the past year. We expect that trend to continue. However, with the high prices and low inventory in the single family market we could see condo demand increase in the short term.
Broward County has only has only 2.5 months of single family inventory and 3.3 months of condo inventory. Both are the lowest in the South Florida MSA.
Palm Beach County
The median sales price for a single family home in Palm Beach County is $585,000 which is down 2.7% year over year, but up for 2 straight months. Months supply of inventory is quite low at 3.1 months and has trended downward for 3 months in a row. As long as single family inventory stays low you can expect median prices to continue their upward trend.
The median sale price for a condo/townhome in Palm Beach County last month was $312,000 which just about matched the record high from June of last year. However, the median price dropped in April to $303,000. Much like the rest of South Florida condo inventory has slowly increased to 3.8 months of supply in April. This is still a seller’s market, but we expect inventory levels to continue trending upward in Palm Beach County.
Miami-Dade County
The median sale price of a single family home in Miami-Dade skyrocketed in April to $600,000. This is an all time high for Miami-Dade and now the highest median price for the 3 counties. Inventory levels have trended downward for 3 straight months with only 3.3 months supply. While this is the highest inventory level of the 3 counties, it is still a strong sellers market.
Condos and townhomes in Miami-Dade are a bit more difficult to read. The median sale price of a condo/townhome shot up to $414,900 which is just below its all time high of $415,000 in May of last year. Meanwhile, inventory levels for condos in Miami-Dade are the highest in the tri-county area at 4.9 months months of supply. So far, demand seems to be keeping up with a growing supply.
Summary
It is simple supply and demand. As long as inventory remains low we can expect median sale prices to continue their upward trend. Look for median prices in all segments to soon reach or exceed their all time highs from last summer. While inventory still seems to be favoring sellers there is good news for buyers too. On average buyers are paying 96% of list price, which is down from 100% just a year ago. There are even better deals to be had in the luxury market where buyers are paying just 92% of list price on average. It is still a great time to buy and a good Realtor can help you to find the better deals in this changing real estate market.
For a detailed market analysis of your condo or single family home, or for professional assistance with your home search in South Florida please contact one of our local trusted agents.
